Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.503424 3.824836 4.197820 4.672816 5.278313 6.051492 7.167553
2025-02-02 3.257639 3.695192 4.251002 5.047698 6.245260 8.185661 12.355794
2025-02-09 3.040468 3.526623 4.179095 5.191386 6.917860 10.424190 24.072498
2025-02-16 2.884188 3.401322 4.125254 5.323762 7.618610 13.649439 251.418578
2025-02-23 2.734067 3.260152 4.018079 5.332770 8.090793 17.467434 NaN
2025-03-02 2.618951 3.152894 3.941818 5.370034 8.651408 24.292258 NaN
2025-03-09 2.513349 3.047738 3.852774 5.360553 9.106113 36.167222 NaN
2025-03-16 2.384311 2.897689 3.675722 5.148650 8.903483 41.589537 NaN
2025-03-23 2.355685 2.893462 3.732446 5.408015 10.315621 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.252213 2.768880 3.576951 5.198455 10.010895 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.148505 2.639004 3.404247 4.932604 9.409525 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 2.060405 2.529424 3.260067 4.715223 8.944782 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 2.036799 2.524589 3.305027 4.941574 10.478733 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 2.037763 2.558119 3.421230 5.369725 13.950287 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 2.002494 2.531221 3.425835 5.534099 16.767981 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.968260 2.503260 3.424874 5.686003 20.663944 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.922380 2.453236 3.376937 5.696362 23.554344 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.883377 2.412254 3.342552 5.739243 28.228729 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.842510 2.365941 3.293715 5.728328 32.840416 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.783869 2.287439 3.176282 5.485202 28.798352 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.775801 2.293358 3.226683 5.782999 56.524094 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.723986 2.222956 3.118501 5.542206 44.963147 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.668815 2.145514 2.993554 5.238923 32.745217 NaN NaN